Who "creates" the most goals?
How does someone create a goal? You would believe it is who shot the puck or made the pass to the shooter.
According to the statistic Goals created, the player who scores the goal gets the most credit, while the two players who assisted on the goal will also get some credit for the goal.
If Player A scores and Player B gets the lone assist, Player A will be 2/3 of the credit for the goal and Player B will get the remaining 1/3.
If Player A scores, both Player B and Player C assist on the goal, Player A gets 1/2 of the credit, while Player B and Player C each get 1/4 credit for the goal.
The Formula for a players Goals Created is:
Goals Created= (Goals+(Assist*0.5)) * (Team Goals + / (Team Goals + (Team Assists *0.5)))
A players goals created is also calculated separately by situation:
Goals Created=GC Even Strength + GC on the Powerplay + GC Shorthanded
Goals in general are a function of talent and ice time; the more ice time a players gets the odds are that they will have more goals. Therefore using goals alone is not a good way to compare offensive production between players.
In order to compare Goals Created between players, we must use the ice time that each player gets in order to level the playing field.
Using Hockey Reference Website, you are able to get the average Ice Time per game for a player Even Strength, On the Powerplay, and Shorthanded. Multiplying these numbers by the number of games played you now have the Total Ice Time for a player in all three situations.
But! Not all Ice Time is created Equal!
There is a higher chance of a goal being scored on the powerplay compared to even strength and there is a lower chance of a goal being scored shorthanded compared to even strength. Therefore, each Time of Ice Number must be adjusted accordingly. Powerplay Time on Ice is weighted 2.5, even strength 1, and shorthanded 0.4 (HockeyNomics, Darcy Norman).
The Formula for Adjusted TOI is:
Adjusted TOI= Even Strength TOI + (Powerplay TOI * 2.5) + (Shorthanded TOI * 0.4)
Now that we have a players total adjusted time on ice, we can more easily compare players Goals Created.
Adjusted Goals Created per 60 minutes = Total Goals Created / (Adjusted TOI/60)
Using this number we are able to compare players across teams to see who is creating more offensive per their time on the ice.
Below is the TOP 10: Adjusted GC/60 for the New York Rangers thru 12/6 games (28 games played):
We see from this chart above that Artemi Panarin has created 1 goal for the New York Rangers per every 60 minutes he play thus far in the season.
I plan on continuing to update a top 10 and the Goals Created for these players on a game by game basis. The game by game tweets can be seen on Twitter @AnalyticHockey.
Follow on Twitter: @AnalyticHockey