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Cap Efficient Players

What makes a player a cap efficient player?


They must contribute enough where they are worth the money that they are getting paid.


What makes a player better than an average 'replacement player'?


In baseball the common statistic used for this is WAR. WAR can also be used in hockey, it is so important to see how a player contributes to winning for a team. The other measure, which will be more of the focus, is GAR. GAR is a good comparison statistic with WAR based on the fact that analysis has shown that a 6 GAR contributes to 1 WAR. Players GAR very rarely go higher than 20 in a given season meaning that they might only contribute to up to 3/4 wins, but this is hugely important as this is only measured on a player level. and the combination of all of the players GARs can contribute to the team-wide GAR and therefore WAR. 


Mirroring these two questions together we can use a Cap Hit of a Player and that players GAR to find if a player is "Cap Efficient".


Players GAR vs Cap Hit are graphed on a chart. But how do we know what qualifies as cap efficient and what doesn't. This is where years of analysis has shown that the relationship between GAR and AAV (Cap Hit) is:

AAV=$575K+($467K * GAR)


Plotting this line separates the graph into two different sections, the Cap Efficient players and the non-cap efficient players.


An example of this is shown below. This is the plot showing the New York Rangers for the 2019/2020 season with games thru 12/24 as data points. The GAR numbers that were used come from the https://evolving-hockey.com/ site (@EvolvingWild).



From this chart you can see whether a player is efficient or not efficient for the amount of money that is being paid to them. One of the most interesting thing from this chart is that for all the money the 37 year-old goaltender is still getting paid he is still a very cap efficient player. Not labeled in the cap efficient players are Tony DeAngelo, Alexandar Georgiev, and Adam Fox. The full interactive chart is available on https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.ramondelli#!/vizhome/CapEfficiencyCurveNewYorkRangers/Dashboard1


This is a very easy and simple chart that can be reproduced. By comparing team by team charts you will be able to see which teams have more cap efficient players and if that has a positive relationship with Winning.


Make sure to check out all of the other visuals at https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.ramondelli#!/



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©2019 by The Hockey Fanatic: Analytics. Created by Christopher Ramondelli